Publication date: Nov 10, 2026· Forward curve: Oct 30, 2026· SETE: v15.18
OFFICIAL PUBLICATION · Oct 2026
Conventional
BRAZIL
IAML
115.3%
Free Market Attractiveness Index
monthly-1.8 ppiComparison with the reconstructed series The value used as the basis for comparison predates the start of official Termômetro ACL publications.
12 months-22.0 ppiComparison with the reconstructed series The value used as the basis for comparison predates the start of official Termômetro ACL publications.
EPML
5.7%
Potential Free Market Savings
monthly-0.6 ppiComparison with the reconstructed series The value used as the basis for comparison predates the start of official Termômetro ACL publications.
12 months-6.0 ppiComparison with the reconstructed series The value used as the basis for comparison predates the start of official Termômetro ACL publications.
50% Incentivized
BRAZIL
IAML
127.9%
Free Market Attractiveness Index
monthly-2.0 ppiComparison with the reconstructed series The value used as the basis for comparison predates the start of official Termômetro ACL publications.
12 months-21.3 ppiComparison with the reconstructed series The value used as the basis for comparison predates the start of official Termômetro ACL publications.
EPML
11.6%
Potential Free Market Savings
monthly-0.6 ppiComparison with the reconstructed series The value used as the basis for comparison predates the start of official Termômetro ACL publications.
12 months-6.1 ppiComparison with the reconstructed series The value used as the basis for comparison predates the start of official Termômetro ACL publications.
IAML: parity at 100%. EPML: parity at 0%.
A PERSPECTIVE OVER TIME
Indicator trends
BRAZIL · A4 BLUE
Source: Dcide and TR Soluções
The series prior to October 2026 was reconstructed retrospectively using the methodology in force at launch and does not represent indicators published at the time or evidence of predictive capability.
Monthly report by Dcide and TR Soluções that tracks the economic attractiveness of the free market (ACL) relative to the regulated market (ACR) through IAML and EPML, with October 2026 results and the historical series since 2016.
Termômetro ACL is an initiative by Dcide and TR Soluções created to track, on a recurring and comparable basis, the economic attractiveness of the Free Contracting Environment (ACL) relative to the Regulated Contracting Environment (ACR). Termômetro ACL combines two complementary indicators, IAML and EPML, calculated for a reference consumer and published monthly.
What are IAML and EPML?+
IAML, the Free Market Attractiveness Index, measures the ratio between the reference consumer's break-even price and the forward price of energy in the ACL. EPML, Potential Free Market Savings, measures how much the difference between the break-even price and the forward price represents relative to the same reference consumer's total captive cost, excluding taxes.
How should IAML be interpreted?+
IAML economic parity corresponds to 100%. Values above 100% indicate that, for the reference consumer and horizon, the forward price is lower than the break-even price, which means the ACL is more economically attractive. Values below 100% indicate the opposite. An IAML of 100% represents theoretical parity between the two environments.
How should EPML be interpreted?+
A positive EPML indicates potential savings in the ACL for the reference consumer; an EPML of zero represents parity; and a negative EPML indicates a potential increase in costs in the ACL. For example, an EPML of 8% means that the difference between the break-even price and the forward price is equivalent to approximately 8% of the total captive cost considered in the methodology.
Why are there two indicators?+
Because they answer different and complementary questions. IAML shows how far the market is from economic parity between the ACL and the ACR. EPML translates that difference into a measure related to the total captive cost. Put simply: IAML answers “how far are we from parity?”; EPML answers “how much does that represent in the total cost?”.
What is the break-even price?+
It is the maximum energy price in the ACL that would make the free and regulated environments economically equivalent for the reference consumer, given the methodology's assumptions. The higher the break-even price relative to the forward price, the greater the economic attractiveness of the ACL tends to be for the reference analyzed.
Which reference consumer is currently used?+
The reference consumer is connected at medium voltage, subgroup A4, Blue tariff modality, with a contracted demand of 1,000 kW off-peak and 800 kW at peak, and average load factors of 70% off-peak and 85% at peak. Demand remains constant, while consumption varies monthly according to the seasonality used in the methodology.
What is the difference between the Conventional and 50% Incentivized indicators?+
Each set uses the forward price and the break-even price for the corresponding product. Incentivized energy has historically been associated with a tariff benefit on network usage charges, so its economic attractiveness may differ from that of conventional energy.
Does an EPML of 8% guarantee that any consumer will save 8%?+
No. EPML is a reference indicator. The actual result for a given consumer depends on factors such as the distribution company, load profile, tariff modality, contracted demand, seasonality, commercial terms, contracting date and term, taxes, representation costs and energy purchasing strategy.
How often is Termômetro ACL updated?+
It is published monthly, on the 10th, for the previous month. When the 10th falls on a weekend or national holiday, publication takes place on the next business day.
Important information
Reference indicator
Termômetro ACL is a market reference, not an individual simulation. The results are calculated for the reference consumer defined in the methodology and do not constitute a recommendation to migrate, contract or invest. Specific consumption, contracting and tax conditions and other commercial factors may produce different results.
50% Incentivized Energy
The 50% Incentivized Energy indicators represent the economic attractiveness of this product for consumers who retain the right to the corresponding tariff benefit. From 2026 onwards, new migrations to the ACL are not entitled to the discount on the use of the systems associated with incentivized energy, and demand increases by consumers who already benefit do not receive the discount on the additional portion.
Methodology, data and revisions
The indicators are calculated from Dcide's forward price references and TR Soluções' tariff modeling, according to the methodology in force for each calculation. Data, assumptions or methodologies may be updated and, when necessary, historical values may be recalculated and republished with the changes identified and traceable.
Termômetro ACLA partnership between Dcide and TR Soluções
